Bounded Rational Behavior in Experimental Games and Markets: by Reinhard Tietz (auth.), Prof. Dr. Reinhard Tietz, Prof. Dr.

By Reinhard Tietz (auth.), Prof. Dr. Reinhard Tietz, Prof. Dr. Wulf Albers, Prof. Dr. Reinhard Selten (eds.)

The booklet experiences on fresh experimental learn on expectancies and selection making in bargaining, markets, auctions, or coalition formation occasions. The investi- gated themes bring development stones for a bounded rational concept as an method of clarify habit and interpersonal interactions in fiscal and social relationships.

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Extra info for Bounded Rational Behavior in Experimental Games and Markets: Proceedings of the Fourth Conference on Experimental Economics, Bielefeld, West Germany, September 21–25, 1986

Example text

For a first overview I compare the mean squared residuals (MSR) in the different parts of the experiment (see Table 1). 75 1. 15 1. 34 The average values in the last row of the table show a plausible movement of MSR. It declines from A1 to A2 because of learning. Then it increases from A2 to B1 because the subjects have to adjust to a "new" series, but it does not reach its former amount because the subjects are acquainted with this type of series. From B1 to B2 MSR declines again down to the value in A2.

Furthermore, let us assume that Wt includes Yt • Finally, let us assume that Ct is chosen at the beginning of t, immediately after Yt is revealed. We thus have We now determine the individual's optimal consumption strategy. To this end, we introduce Vt(W t ) to denote the maximal value of (1), that is, of expected lifetime utility (as viewed from the beginning of period t). Obviously this depends on Wt ' the individual's wealth at the beginning of period t. ) Thus, definitionally, we have vt (W t ) = max {E C C t t' t+l, ...

Predictions in Time Series 45 An alternative to (6) is a regression model with it instead of x t . Again we find that - with constant coefficients - this hypothesis does not give a general improvement when compared with RE by a sign test. When we restrict this hypothesis to the "late" predictions, we find three subjects (1,d,5) whose behaviour is better described by the regression model. A small improvement can be gained when we try to incorporate learning effects by a moving regression model. When we use i t + T , T=-20, ..

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